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九折型材厂家分析今冬方管价格走势将会怎样?

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九折型材厂家分析今冬方管价格走势将会怎样?

发布日期:2018-11-30 作者: 点击:

厂家分析今冬方管价格走势将会怎样?


进入4季度以来,全国方管市场需求较为旺盛,由此拉动钢铁产量较大幅度增长,并因为冶炼成本的提高,致使价格行情震荡扬升,钢铁行业实现利润明显增多,总体呈现继续升温态势。
Since entering the fourth quarter, the demand of the national square management market has been relatively vigorous, which has led to a substantial increase in iron and steel production. As a result of the increase in smelting costs, the price fluctuation has risen, the profits of the steel industry have increased significantly, and the overall situation has continued to warm up. 今后中国
市场行情如何?尤其今年冬天,即春节之前的价格走势将会怎样?再次成为市场参与者们的关注热点。
What is the market price of Chinese square tubes in the future? What is the price trend especially this winter, before the Spring Festival? Once again become the focus of attention of market participants.

1、基本面较为健康,不具备大幅跌落基础
1, the fundamentals are healthy and do not have a substantial drop base.

应该说,迄今为止,中国方管市场基本较为健康。主要体现为决策部门以扩大内需,特别是稳定基建投资方式,应对外部环境严峻,化解经济下行压力。比如货币政策趋向宽松、财政政策更为积极、减税降负、支持民营企业和小微企业等。随着上述政策效应的逐步显现,今年4季度中国方管的国内需求继续旺盛,由此消化了不断创下新高的九折型材钢铁增量,全国方管社会库存持续低位。2018年11月初(11月2日),全国方管综合库存指数为87.6,比今年1季度高点(3月9日)下降53%,比去年同期下降1.7%。其中长材库存指数为95.6,比今年1季度高点(3月9日)下降近7成,比去年同期下降14%。正是这种健康的基本面,提振了市场信心,短时期内不具备价格大幅跌落基础。
It should be said that so far, the Chinese market is basically healthy. Mainly reflected in the decision-making departments to expand domestic demand, especially to stabilize the way of investment in infrastructure, to cope with the severe external environment, to defuse the downward pressure of the economy. For example, monetary policy tends to be loose, fiscal policy is more active, tax reduction, support for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, etc. With the gradual emergence of the above policy effects, China's domestic demand for square management continued to boom in the fourth quarter of this year, thus digesting the ever-reaching new steel increment, and the national inventory of square management society remained low. At the beginning of November 2018 (November 2), the national comprehensive inventory index of square management was 87.6, which was 53% lower than the peak in the first quarter of this year (March 9), and 1.7% lower than the same period last year. Among them, the inventory index of long timber is 95.6, which is nearly 70% lower than the peak in the first quarter of this year (March 9), and 14% lower than the same period last year. It is this healthy fundamentals that boost market confidence and do not have the basis for a sharp drop in prices in a short period of time.

2、春节前资金较为谨慎,一般不会大举买进
2, before the Spring Festival, funds are more prudent, generally do not buy big.

按照以往规律,冬季属于需求淡季,供求关系相对宽松,因此春节之前资金较为谨慎,尤其是期货投机资本,一般不会大举买进,这就使得方管价格亦难以出现暴涨。
According to the previous law, winter is a slack season of demand, and the supply-demand relationship is relatively loose. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, funds are more cautious, especially futures speculative capital, which generally will not buy in large quantities, which makes it difficult for the square price to rise sharply.

九折型材

春节之前的现货买进,主要是方管“冬储”。其规模如何?这不仅要取决于来年春天市场信心,还受制于钢铁企业让利如何?目前来看,钢铁企业销售顺畅,库存压力不大,因此价格大幅让利不会太大。如果这种局面持续下去,预计钢铁贸易商们的“冬储”积极性亦不会太高。
The spot purchase before the Spring Festival is mainly the "winter storage" of the square tube. What is its scale? This depends not only on market confidence in the coming spring, but also on how to profit from iron and steel enterprises. At present, iron and steel enterprises sell smoothly, inventory pressure is not large, so price concessions will not be too large. If this situation continues, it is expected that steel traders' enthusiasm for "winter storage" will not be too high.

3、各种因素较为确定,市场行情较为平稳
3, various factors are relatively determined, and the market is relatively stable.

2018年中国方管市场的两大不确定因素,一是中美贸易战;二是环保限产。目前市场对这两大因素已经消化,预期稳定:
The two major uncertainties in the Chinese side market in 2018 were the Sino US trade war and the two environmental protection limited production. At present, the market has already digested these two factors and is expected to be stable:

中国方管出口已经出现较大幅度下降,即便中美贸易战出现最糟糕的情况,也不过如此。况且,决策部门对此已经具有政策储备,预计外部需求形势越是严峻,国内需求的启动力度就会越大,中国经济稳中向好、中高速增长局面不会改变,由此奠定了中国方管需求继续旺盛的坚实基础。
China's export control has declined considerably, even in the worst case of the Sino-US trade war. Moreover, policy-making departments have policy reserves for this. It is expected that the more severe the external demand situation is, the more vigorous the domestic demand will be. The situation of stable, medium and high-speed growth of China's economy will not change, thus laying a solid foundation for China's continued vigorous demand for management.

环保限产力度如何?主要取决于天气状况。出于经济增长与保证供应的需要,如果不出现严重雾霾天气,估计今冬取暖期间,钢铁企业限产不会“一刀切”,力度亦不会太大。对此,市场已经取得共识,分歧不大,从而使得 “炒作题材”相应减少,减缓了市场震荡。
What is the limit of environmental protection? It depends mainly on weather conditions. For the need of economic growth and supply assurance, if there is no severe haze weather, it is estimated that during the heating period this winter, iron and steel enterprises will not limit production "one size fits all" and the intensity will not be too great. In this regard, the market has reached a consensus, there is little disagreement, so that the "hype theme" corresponding reduction, slowing down market shocks.

由此可见,今冬中国方管市场应该高位运行,波澜不惊。当然,因为当前方管库存水平较低,尤其是建材库存持续下降;同时方管现货价格远高于期货价格,而现货价格又看不出大幅跌落迹象。因此方管市场还是具备了一定的上涨基础,现在是“万事俱备只欠东风”,需要一个“火星引爆上涨火药”。
It can be seen that this winter China's market of local management should be running at a high level. Of course, because the current level of inventory is low, especially building materials inventory continues to decline; at the same time, spot prices are much higher than futures prices, and spot prices do not show signs of a sharp drop. Therefore, the market still has a certain basis for growth. Now it is "everything is ready but the East wind" and needs a "Mars detonates the rising gunpowder".

这个“火星”是什么?目前不得而知。可能是中美贸易谈判峰回路转,突然出现重大利好;也可能是雾霾严重,钢铁企业限产力度大大超出预期;也有可能是重大事故。总之,是极大超出预期的意外消息。否则,缺乏重大炒作题材,“上涨火药就不会引爆”,今冬方管市场行情将会一直相对平稳。
What is this "Mars"? It is not known at present. Maybe it's the turn of the Sino-US trade negotiations that has brought about a sudden positive outcome. Maybe it's the severe haze that has caused the steel companies to exceed their expectations in limiting their output. Maybe it's also a major accident. In short, it is a great unexpected news. Otherwise, in the absence of major hype, "rising gunpowder will not explode", the market will remain relatively stable this winter.


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关键词:门加强筋方管,九折型材,十六折型材

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